By C.R. Jackson | chadrjackson@aol.com
President Biden may seek to fundraise and capitalize on Trump's conviction, but the reality is stark: Biden's unpopularity and perceived incompetence have led to a scenario where a convicted felon is leading him in the polls and may well still win the election. The recent verdict in the case against former President Donald Trump has left political analysts and the public alike grappling with its potential impact on the 2024 presidential race. Amidst the legal turmoil, a striking narrative emerges: Joe Biden's growing unpopularity, particularly in swing states and key demographics, may inadvertently bolster Trump's election chances—even from a prison cell.
Recent polling data paints a troubling picture for President Biden. In critical swing states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, Biden's approval ratings have been consistently low, with many voters expressing dissatisfaction with his handling of the economy and foreign policy. According to a recent poll by Quinnipiac University, Biden’s approval rating hovers around 40% in these battleground states, a precarious position for any incumbent seeking re-election [1].
Moreover, key demographics that were pivotal in securing Biden's 2020 victory are showing signs of erosion. Among suburban voters, particularly suburban women, Biden's support has waned significantly. A recent survey by the Pew Research Center reveals that only 35% of suburban women approve of Biden's job performance, a stark contrast to the strong support he enjoyed from this group in the last election [2].
Even more telling is the public's reaction to Trump's legal troubles. Despite the conviction, polling indicates that a significant portion of the electorate remains unfazed. An NPR poll found that 45% of registered voters believe that Trump could still effectively run the country even if he were to serve time. This sentiment is echoed in the Republican base, where 70% of respondents in the same poll expressed continued support for Trump, regardless of his legal status. What’s more, nearly 20% of non-white voters under 45 and earning less than $50,000 annually, indicated that an acquittal would make them MORE inclined to vote for Trump. [3].
The implications of these findings are profound. They suggest a pervasive disillusionment with Biden's presidency, to the extent that some voters would prefer a convicted former president over the current administration. This reflects a broader sentiment that Biden's leadership has not lived up to expectations, particularly in addressing inflation, immigration, and public safety concerns.
For Biden, these developments signal a critical need to reassess and reinvigorate his campaign strategy. Merely highlighting Trump’s legal issues may not suffice. After all, if polling suggests the convict is more popular than his opponent, what does that say about the unpopularity of Joe Biden? Biden must address the core concerns of voters, particularly in swing states, by demonstrating tangible progress on pressing issues and restoring confidence in his leadership. But alas, the poll numbers show the voters doubt in his ability to do this.
In the end, the Trump verdict may paradoxically serve to amplify his appeal to a disaffected electorate, yearning for change and willing to overlook convictions in favor of effectiveness. As the 2024 election looms, Biden's path to re-election appears increasingly fraught with challenges, not the least of which is convincing a skeptical public that his administration can deliver where it matters most, abandoning him in favor of a convicted felon. Now that is an indictment!
Sources
Quinnipiac University Poll. “2024 Race: Biden-Trump Matchup Margin Razor Thin with Nearly 1 in 5 Voters Likely to Change Their Minds, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; More Than 7 in 10 Voters Plan to Watch June Debate.” Quinnipiac University Poll, May 22, 2024. https://poll.qu.edu/Poll-Release?releaseid=3898.
Pew Research Center. “Joe Biden’s Approval Ratings.” Pew Research Center, April 24, 2024. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/04/24/joe-bidens-approval-ratings/.
NPR. “Trump Verdict: Trial Voters Presidential Election.” NPR, May 30, 2024. https://www.npr.org/2024/05/30/nx-s1-4974598/trump-verdict-trial-voters-presidential-election.
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